# The Trade Economy Index

> An open, source-cited 2026 index scoring the 13 major U.S. skilled trades on how they fare in the AI era. Two axes: AI-Resilience (how protected the trade's core work is from AI) and AI-Leverage (how much profit AI can unlock by orchestrating the work around the labor). Grounded in public labor, permit, market, review, and equity data plus aggregate operating benchmarks from Level CFO. Compiled by Sam Yang of Level CFO, which advises contractors in several of these trades (disclosed, not third-party). Free to cite with attribution.

Index definitions and retained research references:
- Trades scored: 13. Public-company validators: 69.
- Public-company figures are a reference snapshot dated July 23, 2026, with stated fiscal periods. They are not a streaming market feed.
- The headline metric is the Trade AI Score (TAS): a 0-100 composite of AI-Resilience and AI-Leverage.
- License: Trade Economy Index original analysis, scores, and compilation are published under CC BY 4.0. Third-party cited material retains its original rights.
- Scoring: AI-Resilience and AI-Leverage are each a weighted average of four transparent sub-scores (see methodology). Trades are placed in four quadrants: Transform & Win, Safe Haven, Race to Modernize, Under Pressure.
- Editorial thesis: skilled physical work has on-site constraints; index scores are relative judgments, not absolute automation or profit forecasts.
- Highest composite index score: HVAC & Refrigeration (82.3). Lowest: Painting & Wall Finishing (69.3).
- Maximum depth per trade: 42 research topics (labor, market structure, unit economics, cash cycle, AI exposure, channel, lock-in, entry barriers, M&A, demand, reputation). Published numeric facts retain citations and confidence tiers; 91% were reviewed in two or more research passes. Pass counts are workflow metadata, not independent evidence counts.
- Geographic coverage: wage differentials and licensing/bonding regimes for up to 50 states, plus contractor density and permit trends for up to 50 metro areas per trade, with mixed periods and geographic scopes.
- Building stock: 77.6% of U.S. commercial & industrial properties with a known construction era were built before 2000; 39.4% of all properties have unknown era. This describes age mix, not replacement velocity or a universal trade tailwind.
- Legacy acquisition references: retained endpoint columns have medians 3x to 10.45x, including a single non-bound figure. Not a median of comparable transaction ranges. Original source tiers and scope: https://tradesindex.org/valuation/
- Legacy pooled tier ratio is not comparable: SDE and EBITDA bases differ. Original arithmetic remains in JSON for reproducibility, not evidence of a measured scale premium or size effect.

## Acquisition EBITDA multiples by trade (what each trade sells for)

Legacy research references are not independently verified current trade benchmarks. Sources can describe a vendor sample, a public company, a broader occupation or industry, or a different period and geography. Do not use these retained assertions alone for current adoption, ranking, valuation or finance decisions. Separately published Level benchmarks retain their own documented population and method. "Tuck-in" = small owner-operator shop; "platform" = scaled multi-location business. Each figure's citation is on the trade page and in valuation-multiples.json.

- [Fire & Life Safety](https://tradesindex.org/trades/fire-life-safety/): Legacy unverified reference: 3x to 20x EBITDA. The retained high endpoint includes the national-platform tier, unlike rows that separate platform references. (retained research vintage 2026, not a transaction-date window)
- [Landscaping & Grounds](https://tradesindex.org/trades/landscaping/): Legacy unverified reference: 3x to 12.2x EBITDA. High endpoint (12.2x): retained commercial-grounds cohort average for the $3M-$10M EBITDA size band, not every landscaping business or buyer type. (retained research vintage 2025, not a transaction-date window). Top-4 firm share 9.6%
- [Low-Voltage & Security](https://tradesindex.org/trades/low-voltage-security/): Legacy unverified reference: 3x to 11.8x EBITDA. Legacy source scope unverified; cohort definitions and platform inclusion differ.; a separate source reports averages of 11.7x to 11.8x for its own cohorts (retained research vintage 2026, not a transaction-date window). Tuck-in (sub-$2M) 3x-5x EBITDA; platform ($3M-$10M+) 8x-11.8x EBITDA
- [Painting & Wall Finishing](https://tradesindex.org/trades/painting/): Legacy unverified reference: 3x to 11x EBITDA. High endpoint (11x): Construction-wide reference (cited title: Construction Companies), not a painting-specific transaction sample. Legacy source scope unverified. (retained research vintage 2026, not a transaction-date window). Tuck-in (Sub-$1M) 2x-4x EBITDA; platform ($3M+) 5x-7x EBITDA. Top-4 firm share 6.9%
- [Restoration & Remediation](https://tradesindex.org/trades/restoration/): Legacy unverified reference: 4x to 11x EBITDA. Legacy source scope unverified; cohort definitions and platform inclusion differ. (retained research vintage 2026, not a transaction-date window). Tuck-in (under $2M) 4x-6x EBITDA; platform ($10M to $25M+) 8x-11x EBITDA. Top-4 firm share 7.8%
- [HVAC & Refrigeration](https://tradesindex.org/trades/hvac/): Legacy unverified reference: 3.4x to 10.9x EBITDA. Legacy source scope unverified; cohort definitions and platform inclusion differ.; a separate source reports 9.5x as an average for its own cohort (retained research vintage 2025-2026, not a transaction-date window). Tuck-in (sub-$1M) 3x-5x EBITDA; platform ($10M+) 9x-13x EBITDA. Separately, platform references, including advisor ranges and transaction reports, quote observations to 19x (NOT the range a privately held contractor should expect). Top-4 firm share 4.1%
- [Roofing](https://tradesindex.org/trades/roofing/): Legacy unverified reference: 2.5x to 10x EBITDA. Legacy source scope unverified; cohort definitions and platform inclusion differ. (retained research vintage 2025-2026, not a transaction-date window). Top-4 firm share 4.4%
- [Doors & Access](https://tradesindex.org/trades/doors-access/): Legacy unverified reference: 3.5x to 9x EBITDA. Legacy source scope unverified; cohort definitions and platform inclusion differ. (retained research vintage 2026, not a transaction-date window). Separately, platform references, including advisor ranges and transaction reports, quote observations to 16x (NOT the range a privately held contractor should expect). Top-4 firm share 24.7%
- [Electrical](https://tradesindex.org/trades/electrical/): Legacy unverified reference: 3.5x to 8.5x EBITDA. Legacy source scope unverified; cohort definitions and platform inclusion differ.; a separate source reports averages of 6.2x to 7.8x for its own cohorts (retained research vintage 2025, not a transaction-date window). Separately, platform references, including advisor ranges and transaction reports, quote observations to 20x (NOT the range a privately held contractor should expect). Top-4 firm share 5.1%
- [Glass & Glazing](https://tradesindex.org/trades/glass-glazing/): Legacy unverified reference: source-reported figure 7.1x EBITDA (not established as an upper bound). GF Data NAICS 238 all-specialty-trade cohort, $50M-$100M enterprise-value band. Single figure, not a bound or glazing-specific measurement. (retained research vintage 2025-2026, not a transaction-date window). Top-4 firm share 5.2%
- [Commercial Cleaning & Janitorial](https://tradesindex.org/trades/commercial-cleaning/): Legacy unverified reference: 3.5x to 7x EBITDA. Legacy source scope unverified; cohort definitions and platform inclusion differ. (retained research vintage 2025-2026, not a transaction-date window). Tuck-in (sub-$500K) 2x-3.5x SDE; platform ($10M+) 7x-12x EBITDA. Separately, platform references, including advisor ranges and transaction reports, quote observations to 12x (NOT the range a privately held contractor should expect). Top-4 firm share 11.2%
- [Plumbing](https://tradesindex.org/trades/plumbing/): Legacy unverified reference: 2.4x to 7x EBITDA. Legacy source scope unverified; cohort definitions and platform inclusion differ. (retained research vintage 2026, not a transaction-date window). Tuck-in ($300K-$1M) 2.4x-4.5x EBITDA; platform ($7M+) 6.5x-8x EBITDA. Separately, platform references, including advisor ranges and transaction reports, quote observations to 19x (NOT the range a privately held contractor should expect). Top-4 firm share 4.1%

## Ranked trades (composite index score, AI-Resilience / AI-Leverage, quadrant)

- [HVAC & Refrigeration](https://tradesindex.org/trades/hvac/): 82.3 (R 83.4 / L 81.3), Transform & Win
- [Fire & Life Safety](https://tradesindex.org/trades/fire-life-safety/): 81.7 (R 83.4 / L 79.9), Transform & Win
- [Electrical](https://tradesindex.org/trades/electrical/): 80.2 (R 80.6 / L 79.7), Transform & Win
- [Doors & Access](https://tradesindex.org/trades/doors-access/): 78.6 (R 79.4 / L 77.7), Safe Haven
- [Glass & Glazing](https://tradesindex.org/trades/glass-glazing/): 76.8 (R 76.8 / L 76.9), Safe Haven
- [Restoration & Remediation](https://tradesindex.org/trades/restoration/): 76.8 (R 70.5 / L 83.1), Race to Modernize
- [Plumbing](https://tradesindex.org/trades/plumbing/): 76.5 (R 79.9 / L 73.1), Safe Haven
- [Low-Voltage & Security](https://tradesindex.org/trades/low-voltage-security/): 76.3 (R 72.2 / L 80.3), Race to Modernize
- [Concrete & Masonry](https://tradesindex.org/trades/concrete-masonry/): 75.5 (R 75.7 / L 75.3), Safe Haven
- [Landscaping & Grounds](https://tradesindex.org/trades/landscaping/): 74.9 (R 68.9 / L 80.9), Race to Modernize
- [Roofing](https://tradesindex.org/trades/roofing/): 74.8 (R 68.5 / L 81.1), Race to Modernize
- [Commercial Cleaning & Janitorial](https://tradesindex.org/trades/commercial-cleaning/): 74 (R 68.6 / L 79.5), Race to Modernize
- [Painting & Wall Finishing](https://tradesindex.org/trades/painting/): 69.3 (R 64.2 / L 74.3), Under Pressure

## Core pages

- [The index (home + quadrant chart + ranked table)](https://tradesindex.org/)
- [All trades](https://tradesindex.org/trades/)
- [What trade businesses sell for (EBITDA multiples by trade, ranked)](https://tradesindex.org/valuation/)
- [Methodology (axes, weighted sub-scores, quadrants, provenance)](https://tradesindex.org/methodology/)
- [Where does your shop stand (self-benchmark tool)](https://tradesindex.org/compare/)
- [Data & downloads (machine-readable JSON)](https://tradesindex.org/data/)
- [Building economics MCP (read-only AI tools)](https://tradesindex.org/mcp/), endpoint: https://tradesindex.org/api/mcp
- [About & independence disclosure](https://tradesindex.org/about/)

## Machine-readable data (JSON)

- [Index summary](https://tradesindex.org/data/index.json)
- [All trades with scores](https://tradesindex.org/data/trades.json)
- [Scoring methodology](https://tradesindex.org/data/methodology.json)
- [Public-company comps](https://tradesindex.org/data/comps.json)
- [Reputation aggregates](https://tradesindex.org/data/reputation.json)
- [Firmographic aggregates](https://tradesindex.org/data/firmographics.json)
- [Building-stock age/size by state](https://tradesindex.org/data/building-stock.json)
- [Acquisition multiples & consolidation by trade](https://tradesindex.org/data/valuation-multiples.json)
- [Level CFO operating benchmarks](https://tradesindex.org/data/level-benchmarks.json)
- Per-trade full data (all 42 topics + 50 states + 50 metros + unit economics by revenue band + comps): https://tradesindex.org/data/trades/<slug>.json

## The same data on open-data platforms

These are mirrors of the tables above, flattened one row per observation, with citations, research-pass counts, and confidence metadata retained where available. Trade Economy Index original analysis, scores, and compilation are CC BY 4.0; cited third-party material retains its original rights.

- Hugging Face: https://huggingface.co/datasets/LevelCFO/trade-economy-index
- GitHub (CSV + JSON): https://github.com/levelcfo/trade-economy-index-data
- Permanent DOI (cite this): https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21762674

## Provenance

Citable numeric figures use per-cell sources where the table supports them. Index scores, Level aggregates, permit summaries, and building-stock aggregates use the table-level provenance disclosed on the methodology and data pages.

Aggregate operating benchmarks provided by Level CFO (n disclosed). Aggregate-only; no individual company identified.

## Citation

The Trade Economy Index, 2026 Edition. Compiled by Sam Yang, Level CFO. DOI 10.5281/zenodo.21762674 (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21762674). https://tradesindex.org. Original analysis, scores, and compilation are CC BY 4.0; cited third-party material retains its original rights.